The Green Bay Packers are back in the NFL Playoffs and are looking to build on their surprising success from last year’s playoff run. The Packers ended the season as the 7th seed, set for a Week 1 rematch against the 2nd-seeded Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday. Though the Packers finished the regular season with an impressive 11-6 record—two wins better than last year—there are plenty of concerns surrounding the team.
The Concerns:
Week 18’s loss to the Bears came with numerous negatives, including poor execution on the final defensive drive, a stagnant offense, and injuries piling up. Christian Watson has been confirmed to have a torn ACL, Jordan Love is dealing with an elbow injury, Jaire Alexander is on injured reserve, and backup QB Malik Willis has a thumb injury. The Packers head into the playoffs battered and bruised, facing a team that has been this franchise’s kryptonite for my 31 years of life: a dominant rushing offense.
The Eagles rank 2nd in rushing offense, spearheaded by an explosive season from Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, Saquon made the Packers’ defense look like Swiss cheese, rushing for 109 yards on 24 carries, adding 2 catches for 23 yards, and scoring a hat trick of touchdowns to edge out the Packers 34-29. Though the Packers’ defense forced three takeaways in that game, the offense fell stagnant and couldn’t convert short fields into touchdowns. This led to late-game heroics from Jordan Love in an attempt to save the day, ultimately falling short—a theme of recent weeks.
I’m not sure if this is just an NFC North issue or a broader playoff team issue, but whenever the Packers play NFC North opponents (1-5 this year in division), the offense struggles to get anything going until it’s backed into a corner. In both Vikings games, the offense sputtered in the first half, forcing the team to play fast and rely on last-minute defensive stops.
While the defense has good stats this season, no team wants to rely on their defense making a last stand at the two-minute warning. Unfortunately for the Packers, the defense hasn’t been able to get the stops they need late in games. Whether it was the Vikings, the Lions converting on 4th and short, playing prevent defense 10 yards behind field goal range against the Bears, or allowing the Eagles to unleash Saquon Barkley, the offense needs to be more consistent to alleviate pressure on the defense.
The good news? These problems only seem to arise against the Lions, Vikings, Bears, and Eagles. The bad news? The Lions, Vikings, and Eagles stand between the Packers and a Super Bowl appearance. But enough doom and gloom. Though the Packers dropped their last two games, let’s focus on the positives, particularly the offense and Jordan Love.
The Gouda Side:
The offense has been productive, if not spectacular, this season. Jordan Love finished the regular season with 25 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, and 3,389 passing yards, giving him a QBR of 69.2 (nice). Though these numbers are respectable, they lack the explosiveness of last year’s playoff run. This is primarily because Matt LaFleur has transformed this team into a dynamic rushing offense with the addition of Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs, in his first year with the Packers, had an outstanding season, rushing for 1,329 yards on 301 carries with 15 touchdowns. Averaging 4.4 yards per carry, Jacobs has been the offense’s most consistent player. Love has dealt with injuries this year, but thanks to Jacobs’ dynamic rushing, the Packers have managed to survive his absences. Another preseason concern was the lack of a reliable kicker, but Brandon McManus has been excellent. McManus connected on 20 of 21 field goals and made all of his extra points, giving him a 95.2% field goal success rate, second-best in the NFL.
Although the defense has faced tough situations, it has something that could be the difference between being a Wild Card team or a Super Bowl contender: turnovers. The Packers’ defense has swarmed the ball this season, thanks in large part to Xavier McKinney’s 8 interceptions. The team ranks 3rd in the NFL with 17 interceptions, making it a high-risk, high-reward defense.
Lines, Bets, Plays:
The Packers head into Philadelphia as underdogs. The Eagles have played great football all year, but Jalen Hurts is still clearing concussion protocol. If Hurts plays—which seems almost certain—the Packers will face an uphill battle. The betting line could shift if Hurts is unavailable, but all signs point to him being a go.
The Lines:
- Green Bay: Spread: +5 Moneyline: +200
- Philadelphia: Spread: -5 Moneyline: -250
- Over/Under: 45.5 Points
According to BetMGM via Covers
Final Verdict:
The Packers need to start the game strong. Matt LaFleur must establish Josh Jacobs early, but more importantly, he needs to let Love stretch the field. Getting Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs involved early and often will help balance Jacobs’ rushing attack. Using Jaylen Reed as a gadget player could also keep the Eagles’ defense guessing.
Defensively, the Packers need to hope Saquon Barkley has a “quiet” 100-yard game. The Eagles’ offensive line and rushing attack are formidable, but limiting explosive plays can force Hurts to beat them as a passer. Hurts isn’t a bad passer, but he has been prone to turnovers, which brings me to my next point: the pass rush. The Packers’ pass rush has been underwhelming, but pressuring Hurts into making bad throws could swing the momentum in Green Bay’s favor.
As a lifelong Packers fan, I won’t even hide my bias—I believe the Packers are more than capable of not only winning this weekend but also making a serious run to the NFC Championship.
Prediction:
Packers win a cold, hard fought game in Philly 27-24 behind a gritty performance from Josh Jacobs and a 2 TD game from Love. McManus seals it with clock expiring. Packers cover the spread, over hits, and Green Bay moneyline cashes.The Packers win a cold, hard-fought game in Philadelphia, 27-24, behind a gritty performance from Josh Jacobs and two touchdowns from Jordan Love. McManus seals it with a game-winning kick as time expires. Packers cover the spread, the over hits, and Green Bay’s moneyline cashes.
