This one hurts my heart as a Chargers fan. The Los Angeles Chargers are a -3 point favorite on the road against a banged-up and flailing Houston Texans team in this weekend’s Wild Card round. But here’s the kicker—according to Covers.com, a whopping 75% of the consensus is on the Chargers to cover. And if there’s one rule I live by, it’s this: when the public is over 70% on one side, you automatically go the other way.
So, should you fade the Chargers?
As any seasoned fan knows, the Chargers have earned their infamous reputation for heartbreak, coining the term “Chargering” thanks to a decade of disappointing coaching and head-scratching performances. Add in a history of late-game collapses, and the stage seems set for another potential letdown.
But here’s the twist—this year’s Chargers, under Jim Harbaugh, have been… different. Sitting at 11-6 and relatively healthy, they’ve yet to truly “Charger” in 2024. Could this be the moment they revert to old habits, or has the team truly turned a corner?
How the Chargers Win
Let’s dive into why the public loves the Chargers, and why it’s justified:
Elite Road Defense: The Chargers lead the NFL in points allowed on the road, giving up just 13.9 points per game.
Justin Herbert on Fire: Herbert hasn’t thrown an interception in away games this season and has led the team to three straight wins by a combined score of 108-53.
ATS Dominance: The Chargers boast a stellar 12-4-1 record against the spread this year.
On the offensive side, Herbert needs to keep pushing the ball downfield. Ranked 9th in yards per completion (10.8), he faces a Texans defense ranked 23rd in the league in yards allowed per completion (10.5). Look for McConkey to be a major factor, and if Quentin Johnston can finally hold onto the ball, the Chargers’ hot streak could continue.
How the Texans Win
Houston’s path to victory is clear: exploit the Chargers’ run defense.
The Weak Spot: The Chargers rank 27th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.7). Teams that run effectively against them, like the Buccaneers in Week 15 with Bucky Irving’s 223-yard performance, have exposed this vulnerability.
Joe Mixon’s Impact: For Houston to keep this game close, Joe Mixon has to be the centerpiece of the offense. Controlling the clock and grinding out yards on the ground will be their best chance to pull off the upset.
Houston’s record against playoff teams this season (1-5) doesn’t inspire confidence, but their lone victory came against the Bills in a gritty Week 5 matchup. If the Texans can keep the game tight and turn it into a ground-and-pound battle, they’ll have a shot.
Projected Score and Betting Insights
My projected score: 24-21 Chargers. The spread seems spot-on for this matchup, but I’m leaning toward the over on the 42.5 total points. Both teams have the tools to capitalize on each other’s defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a game that could easily surpass the current total. Expect a more high-scoring showdown than the odds suggest.
Final Thoughts
It’s easy to see why the Chargers are favored. They’ve been dominant on the road, Herbert is in peak form, and their defense has been lights-out against the pass. But history and the Chargers’ Achilles heel—their run defense—make this matchup far from a sure thing. The Texans may be limping into the postseason, but underestimating them could be a mistake.
Will the Chargers keep their newfound composure, or is this where the ghosts of Chargering past make an appearance? Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild one.
