UPDATE: Arman Tsarukyan is out of UFC 311 with a back injury, opening the door for Renato Moicano to step in and face Islam Makhachev for the title. Already on championship weight, Moicano didn’t hesitate to take the fight, proving once again how wild and unpredictable MMA can be. Riding a strong streak of wins, Moicano now has the chance to shock the world against Makhachev, who’s focused on keeping his belt.
UFC 311 Predictions for a Loaded Card
This Saturday, UFC 311 is set to deliver one of the most exciting fight cards of the year. With two title fights headlining the event and a lineup packed with knockout artists and technical specialists, this is a card you don’t want to miss. In this breakdown, I’ll share my UFC 311 predictions, analyzing each matchup with stats and insights to give you a glimpse of how the night might unfold.
Adding to the excitement is the venue—the newly minted Inuit Dome. The electric atmosphere promises to enhance what could be an unforgettable night of fights. Let’s dive into the details of my UFC 311 predictions and explore what makes each matchup unique.
CANCELLED Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev is on a 14-fight win streak, and he’s not just winning—he’s dominating. With a 66% takedown accuracy and an average fight time of 9 minutes and 2 seconds, he wastes no time enforcing his game plan. Arman Tsarukyan is no slouch—he’s one of the few fighters who gave Makhachev a real challenge in their first fight—but the gap between them has widened.
Since their first meeting, Makhachev has added striking threats to his arsenal and has dismantled elite opponents like Charles Oliveira and Alexander Volkanovski. Tsarukyan is dangerous and unpredictable, but Makhachev’s precision and control are second to none. Expect a technical masterclass from the champ.
Prediction: Makhachev by decision
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
Makhachev averages 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53% accuracy and has defended 90% of takedowns in the UFC. Moicano, while solid with 4.42 significant strikes landed per minute, absorbs 3.60 per minute and has struggled against elite wrestlers. On short notice, it’s hard to see Moicano keeping Makhachev off him. I see Makhachev using his wrestling to dominate, take the back, and finish with a submission.
Prediction: Makhachev by Submission
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
This fight is pure intrigue: Merab Dvalishvili’s relentless grind against Umar Nurmagomedov’s versatility and pristine record. Dvalishvili has set records with his cardio and wrestling, including a jaw-dropping 49 takedown attempts in a single fight. But Nurmagomedov’s 100% takedown defense might be the X-factor here.
Umar isn’t just a wrestler; he’s an outstanding striker, landing 4.5 significant strikes per minute with incredible accuracy. While Merab thrives on overwhelming his opponents, I think Nurmagomedov’s ability to mix up his attack and stay calm under pressure will make the difference.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision
Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
This light heavyweight clash is fireworks waiting to happen. Jiri Prochazka boasts an 86% finish rate and brings an unorthodox style that keeps opponents guessing. But Jamahal Hill is as sharp as they come, with a 58% knockout rate and the kind of precision striking that ends fights in an instant.
The big question here is durability. Prochazka’s wild exchanges have left him vulnerable, and coming off two knockout losses doesn’t help his case. Hill’s clean striking and ability to exploit openings make him a nightmare matchup for a fighter like Jiri.
Prediction: Hill by KO
CANCELLED Renato Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush
Beneil Dariush is at a crossroads, and this fight feels like his last stand. With 8 wins by KO and 8 by submission, Dariush has proven he can do it all—but back-to-back losses and whispers of retirement make you wonder if he still has the hunger to compete at the top.
Renato Moicano, meanwhile, has been surging. With 11 career submissions and a newfound aggression in his striking, Moicano looks like a fighter hitting his peak. Dariush has struggled to keep pace with younger, hungrier opponents, and I see Moicano’s combination of pressure and precision being too much.
Prediction: Moicano by decision
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Kevin Holland doesn’t just fight—he entertains. With 14 knockouts and a knack for capitalizing on chaos, Holland is a threat every second the fight stays on the feet. Reinier de Ridder, on the other hand, is a grappling ace with a 67% submission rate, but his striking has been exposed as a weakness.
Holland’s 6’3” frame and 81-inch reach will allow him to keep De Ridder at bay and pick him apart. If Gerald Meerschaert can rock De Ridder, Holland can absolutely put him out. I expect Holland to deliver a highlight-reel finish that has fans talking for weeks.
Prediction: Holland by KO
Final Thoughts on UFC 311 Predictions
My UFC 311 predictions point to a night filled with high-stakes matchups and unforgettable moments. From title defenses to rising stars trying to cement their legacies, this card has the potential to be a classic.
Who are your picks for the UFC 311 predictions? Share your thoughts as we gear up for an explosive night of fights this Saturday!
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